60+ Rescues, 7 Counties Under Emergency and Rivers Still Climbing: Florida’s November Flood

Palm Bay, Fla.  Most of us in Florida think we know what heavy rain looks like. What fell on the Space Coast and the Treasure Coast between Sunday morning and Monday night was something else. In parts of southern Brevard County the rain came down faster than the ground, the ditches and the storm drains could take it, and by early Monday the National Weather Service office in Melbourne was using a phrase it saves for the worst cases, a Flash Flood Emergency.

Deputies, firefighters and wildlife officers spent Monday pulling people out of cars and flooded homes. Two deaths have been reported in the area, including a man who was later found in his truck, and Brevard deputies and FWC officers carried out about 160 rescues (Insurance Journal, citing Florida Today). Below is what the official reports show so far, what still has to play out on the rivers, and what this kind of rain does to the roof over your head, which is the part we can actually help with.

What happened on November 1 and 2

• Sunday, Nov. 1Rain bands start training over the east coast of Florida, pushed onshore by persistent winds off the Atlantic. Flood alerts go up late Sunday night.
• Monday, Nov. 2, 7:56 a.m.NWS Melbourne issues a Flash Flood Emergency for West Melbourne and Palm Bay after radar and gauges show 8 to 12 inches already on the ground, with 4 to 6 more possible.
• Monday, 11:35 a.m.The emergency expands to Grant-Valkaria. Observed totals are now 15 to 20 inches, and the weather service rates the flash flood damage threat as “catastrophic.”
• Monday, all dayBrevard deputies help more than 100 people in rising water, airboats take residents out of flooded homes in West Melbourne, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission assists with more than 60 rescues using airboats, shallow-water boats and a helicopter. Brevard schools close Monday and Tuesday, Melbourne issues a precautionary boil-water notice and a Red Cross shelter opens in Cocoa.
• Monday, Nov. 2Governor Ron DeSantis signs Executive Order 26-227, declaring a state of emergency in Brevard, DeSoto, Hardee, Highlands, Indian River, Martin and St. Lucie counties.
• Tuesday, Nov. 3The heaviest rain is over, but saturated ground, a high water table and full drainage systems mean the water is slow to go down. Several roads in Melbourne are still closed, FWC officers deploy to St. Lucie County to move residents out of flooded homes on airboats and swamp buggies, and NWS Melbourne extends the Flood Warning for the coast from Melbourne southward through 9:30 a.m. Wednesday.
• Wednesday, Nov. 4The St. Johns River near Cocoa rises into moderate flood stage. On the west side of the state, the Peace River at Arcadia reaches 15.7 feet by evening and about 20 homes in the River Acres neighborhood take on water.
• Thursday, Nov. 5 to Friday, Nov. 6The skies clear, but the rivers keep going. The Peace River at Arcadia peaks at 16.5 feet, above its February 1998 record of 16.0 feet, and starts a slow drop on Friday. The St. Johns near Cocoa holds at 16.9 feet, and the river above Lake Harney is still rising.

Timeline compiled from NWS Melbourne, Brevard County Emergency Management, FWC and state reports summarized by The Watchers and USA TODAY.

How much rain fell

The numbers below come from the National Weather Service advisory issued at 10 p.m. Monday and cover roughly 36 hours, from 7 a.m. Sunday to 9 p.m. Monday. For perspective, a lot of Central Florida gets something like 50 inches of rain in a whole year, and some of these neighborhoods got close to half of that in a day and a half.

A few of these totals are historic on their own. Melbourne had 11.03 inches by 5 p.m. Monday, which broke the station’s all-time record for a single day, and the weather service described the rainfall as a 1-in-1,000-year event at some locations. West Palm Beach set a new daily record of 7.39 inches on Monday, almost three times the old mark of 2.52 inches (WFLX). Later preliminary reports from NWS Melbourne put Grant-Valkaria at 23.69 inches, and even Orlando-area stations picked up 5 to 7 inches (News 6).

Why it rained this much, and where El Niño fits

The setup was a stubborn one. The Weather Prediction Center pointed to a high-pressure system over the eastern U.S. driving strong onshore flow, with a low off Florida’s west coast feeding even more moisture into the state, and NWS Melbourne also noted an upper-air disturbance over the eastern Gulf. The result was the same strip of the east coast getting hit by rain band after rain band, while onshore winds and seasonal high tides pushed salt water into low coastal areas at the same time.

We get asked a lot whether this is the El Niño everyone has been talking about. According to the weather service, not yet. Lindsey Long, an NWS meteorologist who specializes in seasonal forecasts, told USA TODAY that “we can’t really attribute any of the current weather patterns to the strengthening El Nino yet.” The warning for the months ahead still stands, though. Will Ulrich, warning coordination meteorologist at NWS Melbourne, told emergency managers in late October that roughly 70% of El Niño winters since 1950 have been wetter than normal in Central Florida. We broke down what that means for roofs, region by region, in our guide to El Niño and Florida roof damage. In plain terms, a roof that took on water this week will probably be tested again before spring.

The water isn’t done yet

Rain stops in a few hours, but rivers take days to crest, and the St. Johns is one of the slowest rivers in the state. On Friday morning it was at 16.9 feet near Cocoa, in moderate flood stage, and NWS Melbourne forecasts a crest of 17.1 feet late this weekend into early next week. At 17.2 feet water gets into homes around Lake Poinsett west of Cocoa, low-lying homes in the Silver Pines area of Rockledge and the Shakespeare Park area of Cocoa are affected, and Providence Road becomes impassable, cutting off homes along Mullet Lane and Bass Road (NWS flood warning). News 6 reported that this crest is expected to run higher than the one after Hurricane Ian, and that the river will stay flooded to some degree for weeks as the water moves north into Seminole, Volusia and Lake counties (News 6). Above Lake Harney the river was at 9.0 feet Friday, a foot over flood stage, and is forecast to reach 9.8 feet early next week, close to the 10-foot level where more homes in low areas flood and secondary roads become impassable (NWS flood warning). Near Astor the river is in moderate flood stage and expected to hold there into next week.

On the other side of the state, the Peace River at Arcadia peaked at 16.5 feet, higher than its previous record crest of 16.0 feet from February 1998, and was down to 16.4 feet Friday morning. The weather service expects it to fall slowly to about 13.3 feet by Wednesday, which is still above the 11-foot flood stage (NWS Tampa Bay). About 20 homes in the River Acres neighborhood flooded, and Arcadia-DeSoto County Habitat for Humanity is handing out relief supplies at 318 North Wilson Avenue (WCXS). The forecast is finally on our side, with sunny, dry weather through the weekend and only a few isolated showers possible early next week (ABC7 Sarasota).

What two feet of rain does to a roof

A healthy roof in good condition can handle a lot of rain, and most of the roofs in Palm Bay or Port St. Lucie came through this week without a drip. The problem with an event like this is volume. When it rains this hard for this long, water backs up in valleys and gutters, sits on flat roofs, and gets pushed sideways by the wind into places that stay dry in a normal summer storm. Small weaknesses that have been there for years, like a cracked pipe boot or a gap in the flashing where the roof meets a wall, suddenly have hours of water working on them.

That’s also why a lot of the damage from this week won’t show up right away. Water that gets past the shingles or tiles often soaks into the underlayment, the deck and the attic insulation first, and the stain on the ceiling appears days or even weeks later. By then the wet decking may already be soft and mold can be starting in the attic. Our guide to what rain does to a rooftop goes deeper on the mechanics, and these are the spots we check first after a storm like this one:

If you manage a condo, a warehouse or a commercial building with a flat roof, check it as soon as it’s safe. Flat roofs depend entirely on drainage, and a week like this one is exactly when a drain clogged with leaves turns into a pond. We explain how those systems are supposed to work in our post on flat roof drain systems, and the board edges along your roofline are covered in our guides to roof fascia and roof soffit.

Flood or roof leak? Why it matters for insurance

This is the question that will decide a lot of claims from this week, and the answer depends on where the water came from. Rising water that came in from the ground, through the doors or up from the yard, is flood damage. A standard homeowners policy doesn’t cover flood, so that claim goes to a separate flood policy through the National Flood Insurance Program or a private flood insurer, if you have one. Water that came in from above, through the roof, is a homeowners claim, but it comes with its own conditions.

Two more details are worth knowing. This was a rain event and not a named storm, so the hurricane deductible shouldn’t apply, and a roof claim from this week would normally fall under your regular, all-other-perils deductible, which you can confirm on your declarations page. Under Florida law you generally have one year from the date of loss to report a new property claim (s. 627.70132), and once you report it, the insurer generally has 60 days to pay or deny it (s. 627.70131). We’re roofers and not lawyers or adjusters, so read your own policy or call your agent for the details of your coverage. Our step-by-step guide on how to document storm damage for a Florida insurance claim shows exactly what photos to take.

What to do in the next 48 hours

• Stay safe first. Don’t walk through floodwater, and keep away from wet electrical outlets and anything near a ceiling that’s sagging with water.
• Photograph everything before you clean up. Ceiling stains, wet insulation, drips, and the outside of the house, with the date visible on your phone. Photos taken now are worth much more than ones taken a month later.
• Dry the inside fast. The EPA recommends drying water-damaged areas and materials within 24 to 48 hours to prevent mold, so move belongings, run fans and dehumidifiers, and pull up soaked rugs (EPA).
• Prevent more damage, safely. Most policies expect you to take reasonable steps to protect the home, which can mean a tarp over an opening. Don’t climb a wet roof yourself. Our guides to temporary roof leak fixes and emergency roof tarping costs in Florida explain what’s safe to do from inside and when to call a pro.
• Keep every receipt. Tarps, fans, dehumidifier rentals and emergency repairs can be part of the claim.
• Get a documented inspection. Even if you don’t see a leak yet, a roof that sat under two feet of rain is worth a look before the next system comes through.

Storm chasers and door knockers

Every big weather event in Florida brings out-of-town crews knocking on doors within a few days, and this one won’t be different. Some of them are legitimate. Plenty aren’t, and the ones who aren’t tend to push for a signature on the spot, ask for a big deposit before any work, or offer to “take care of” your deductible, which Florida law doesn’t allow contractors to do. Before anyone touches your roof, look up the license on the state’s DBPR license search, make sure the business name on the contract matches the license, and get everything in writing. Our list of Florida roofing scam warning signs covers the rest.

We’ve been roofing in Florida since 2004, and we’ll still be here when the water goes down. We’re a Florida Certified Roofing Contractor (CCC1334804) and Certified General Contractor (CGC1534283), and we handle storm damage repair, roof repair and roof inspections across the state, including storm damage repair in Port St. Lucie, Vero Beach, Stuart and Orlando, plus commercial roofing for flat-roof buildings. If the damage means a new roof, we also offer roof financing.

Florida flooding and your roof: frequently asked questions